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DTN Midday Grain Comments     12/01 10:50

   Soybeans Down Over 30 Cents Midday Thursday

   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower; beans are 33 to 34 cents lower and wheat 
is 6 to 8 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower; beans are 33 to 34 cents lower and wheat 
is 6 to 8 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mostly lower with the Dow off 
325 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 1.00 lower. Interest rate products are 
firmer. Energies are mostly higher with crude up $2.20 and natural gas off 
$0.02. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs higher. Precious metals are firmer 
with gold up $51.00.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with spillover pressure from 
soybeans dragging action lower. The daily export wire will be watched to see if 
sales pick up again as we fade to the lower end of the range and come out of 
the holiday break. There has been nothing to start the week and weekly export 
sales were OK for a short week at 602,700 metric tons of old crop, and 30,000 
of new -- and 114,300 metric tons sold to Mexico on the daily wire. Ethanol 
margins remain rangebound with corn values and driving demand expected to slow 
further until closer to Christmas travel. Fall fertilizer should be able to 
make better progress short term as temps fluctuate in the near term. Basis has 
remained steady as transportation issues get worked on with the West starting 
to soften more as end users build coverage. Dry weather in Argentina is raising 
some concern for their crop short term. On the March chart, trade is solidly 
above the lower Bollinger Band at 6.54 with the fresh low at $6.54 1/2 as well 
and the 20-day just above current action at $6.69.


   Soybean trade is 33 to 34 cents lower at midday with trade falling off the 
high end of the range with better weather expected for Brazil while Argentina 
struggles and soyoil washes as biofuels expansion may not be as aggressive as 
hoped near term on blending targets. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 
4.50 cents lower. Basis has held together well with little change in recent 
days. The daily export wire has been limited in recent days with China demand 
likely to be an ongoing concern with the continued shutdowns and unrest going 
forward. Weekly export sales were a little soft at 693,800 metric tons of 
beans, 185,200 of old crop meal, -15,700 of new meal, and -2,300 of oil. On the 
January chart, trade is working back below the 20-day at $14.44 with the upper 
Bollinger Band above current action at $14.74, as well as the fresh high at 
$14.78, and further support the lower Bollinger Band at $14.15.


   Wheat trade is 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade scoring fresh lows 
again before bouncing back to the middle of the week range with support from 
the dollar and spillover pressure from the row crops. The dollar fading from 
the highs should add some support if we can remain at the lower end of the 
range after the Fed statement on slower rate hikes. The Plains look to remain 
mostly dry short term with cooler and wetter potential the second week. 
Southern Hemisphere harvest will be moving forward soon with quality issues in 
Australia and drought losses in Argentina. Matif wheat is trying to sustain 
momentum as well with slightly softer action so far today. Weekly export sales 
remained tepid at 155,200 metric tons of old crop and 7,000 of new. On the 
chart, KC March action has faded well below the 20-day at $9.26 and the lower 
Bollinger band at $8.85 is further support with the fresh low at $8.81 3/4 
scored Thursday morning just below that.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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